Snapshot: 2026 NBA Draft
It’s been far too long, but I’m looking to get to posting a bit more regularly. With the NBA draft tomorrow, I figured I’d make a very quick post with some thoughts about players I like in the form of a quick mock top 10. And please bear with me on formatting this time around, as this post is coming together a bit faster than I’d like.
Without further ado, with the first pick…
#1: Washington Wizards - AJ Dybantsa (Forward, BYU)
There’s nothing too magical here. I think the Wizards will likely take Dybantsa here because he offers a unique blend of scoring juice, strong ballhandling and playmaking skills for a wing, and rim pressure. The counting stats were superlative by any measure, as Dybantsa averaged 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and a reasonable 3.1 turnovers per game. But I think that undersells his circumstances a bit. After Richie Saunders went down with an ACL tear, Dybantsa was forced to shoulder a tremendous offensive load for a BYU team that really struggled to generate offense in the halfcourt. Dybantsa used his phenomenal size and physical tools to generate paint pressure out of a mostly stagnant offense, as evidence by his 8.5 free throw attempts per game. Even with defenses heavily titled against him because of a lack of shooting on the roster, Dybantsa was able to consistently find ways to score and get to the line to keep his team competitive.
The Wizards now have Trae Young in the fold long term and should have a healthier offensive situation around Dybantsa. That will hopefully allow Dybantsa to take more advantage of second side offensive opportunities that simply didn’t exist for him at BYU, and his size, athleticism, and comfort attacking should allow him to generate easier looks getting downhill. That’s something the Wizards’ roster lacks, too.
Dybantsa’s shooting and defense will be key swing skills for him. If he can become an above average shooter, the sky is the limit for Dybantsa offensively. That seems possible, as his 33.1% hit rate from 3 probably was a tad low given the number of off-the-bounce threes he took at BYU. Defense is a bigger question mark, as he often looked a tick behind in off-ball situations, but he has physical tools to lean on. It’s a big potential area for improvement, though.
#2: Utah Jazz - Darryn Peterson (Guard, Kansas)
I could easily make the case for Peterson at number 1. He’s a dynamic scorer with prototypical size and athleticism for an NBA two-guard at 6’4.5”, almost 200 pounds, and with a 37.5 inch max vertical. He gets his shot off exceptionally quickly, is comfortable launching from anywhere, and stays active (most of the time) on offense, and when he is grooving, it’s amazing to watch him shoot. Despite playing just 29 minutes per game, Peterson averaged over 20 points and 4 rebounds per game on 38.2% shooting from 3 (with some audacious shots mixed in).
Peterson falls just behind Dybantsa for me for two reasons, although they may be related. First, Peterson had stretches where he was not impactful in games. Kansas did not have a perfect offensive environment either, but you’d often see Peterson remain comfortable with shooting from range and pump fakes rather than downhill attacking. He showed just enough flashes of explosive downhill attacking to keep me intrigued during the season, but I always thought he could go to it more. That reluctance could have partly been explained by the odd on-and-off quad injury and muscle cramping that Peterson faced last year, which is the second reason Peterson falls #2 for me. While I obviously lack medical training and relevant information, there hasn’t been much of an explanation for why Peterson sat so many games during the season at seemingly unexpected times. If those issues are behind him completely, I’d love to see a bit more aggressiveness from Peterson going to the basket, which will be key to him potentially becoming an All-NBA level player.
#3: Memphis Grizzlies - Cameron Boozer (Power Forward, Duke)
I’ll be quick on Boozer as I don’t think there is anything really magical to say about him. He’s one of the most productive college freshman ever with per game averages of 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.4 steals per game, with very strong shooting splits of 55.6% / 39.1% / 78.9%. And he led Duke to a very strong Elite 8 performance, losing a tough game to eventual runner-up UConn by a point. There’s no question in my mind that he can play at a high, high level. But Boozer’s physical tools and fixed position (he is a PF, through a through, to me) may limit his impact a bit. His combine testing wasn’t bad—he posted decent agility and explosion numbers for a 6’9”, 250+ pound forward—but he did look a step slow on defense a number of times in games. He also struggled at times to finish over NBA-level bigs in college, often missing first attempts but using his strength and bulk to generate second looks. But when faced with players like Tarris Reed (UConn), Boozer wasn’t able to muscle his way into second looks and his offensive efficiency dipped quite a bit. He can make up for this a bit by continuing to improve his outside shooting, which is already very strong, but pushing Boozer to the perimeter robs him of many of his biggest offensive strengths, and he doesn’t yet shoot quickly enough or with enough willingness to truly be a threatening stretch big either.
I think Boozer will ultimately be a very productive player, but in the back of my mind I worry that his production against the league’s top teams could be stymied, which would under his value.
#4: Chicago Bulls - Caleb Wilson (Power Forward, North Carolina)
This one isn’t too exciting, as I think most everyone has Wilson landing with the Bulls here. He’s young, athletic, productive, and toolsy—so it’s no surprise. He brings tremendous energy to games, especially offensively, and shows no fear in attacking the rim whenever he can. I think he’s going to be a very fun player to watch as a result. The things that keep him behind the top 3 guys are really his (comparative) lack of an offensive toolkit. Each of the top 3 guys can either generate offense for themselves at an elite level and generate offense for teammates, at least adequately. Wilson at this point is only capable of generating offense for himself and it relies heavily on his athletic traits—you rarely see him in traditional post ups, operating from the high post, or shooting anything outside. I like that he knows his strengths, but given how much the other top three guys have shown offensively, it’s easy to slot Wilson #4 in my mind.
#5: LA Clippers - Keaton Wagler (Guard, Illinois)
I’m a huge fan of Wagler, to the point where I would readily consider him above Caleb Wilson for most teams (although not for the Bulls given their commitment to Josh Giddey). I felll in love with Wagler’s game early on in the college season given his shooting strength (39.7% from 3 on almost 6 attempts per game), very good size (6’5”), and his prowess offensively. Although his athleticism doesn’t stand out, Wagler is comfortable initiating offense and uses his height extremely well to see the floor—which is a bit of an issue for some of the other point guard prospects in this draft. He is a very strong perimeter shooter and he leverages that shooting threat to operate effectively and comfortably out of the pick and roll.
You almost never see Wagler blow past defenders, but that doesn’t seem to limit him much because he is able to effectively use screens to get his feet into the paint. You almost never seen Wagler get sped up or uncomfortable, and once he’s past his initial defender, Wagler’s toolkit really opens up. He is comfortable using his size to get to the rim and does not shy away from contact, but he also has enough skill to hit runners and crafty layups from difficult angles. He’s also savvy enough to know when a paint touch doesn’t need to lead to his own shot, and he will find spot up shooters even as he drives to the basket. As a result, defenders can’t assume he will rely on a small set of finishing moves, which opens up a lot of opportunities.
Wagler is far for complete as an offensive engine but his shooting, vision, and craftiness suggest a very high ceiling for him offensively. He is not likely to be a plus athlete, but if he can add strength, it’s easy to see how his under-control game will allow him to consistently threaten the paint and play through smaller defenders.
On the defensive end, Wagler doesn’t necessarily stand out, but he certainly shows a willingness to play hard. He will need to speed up his feet and improve his off-ball awareness, but he’s already a strong rebounder for his position, which sets a nice floor for his contributions defensively.
You may be able to tell, but I was really hoping Wagler would fall to the Kings. Given Wagler’s potential, it’s no surprise that the Clippers would be interested in him—as would the Nets if he slips past LA. Moreover, the Clippers have an undersized guard in Darius Garland already on the roster, which only increases the appeal of Wagler relative to Kingston Flemings and Darius Acuff Jr., who are both also a bit smaller than you’d prefer.
#6: Brooklyn Nets - Kingston Flemings (Guard, Houston)
At this point in the draft, the top players (at least in my view) are all guards: Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff Jr., and Mikel Brown Jr. That’s a bit unfortunate for the Nets given they drafted three guards last year in Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, and Ben Saraf. Demin in particular has looked promising, but nonetheless, it’s hard to imagine the Nets would pass on higher-level talents in favor of positional fit.
There has been a lot of reporting suggesting the Nets like Mikel Brown Jr. While it wouldn’t shock me if they take Brown here (and it would certainly be defensible given his offensive upside), I prefer Flemings and Acuff Jr. at this point.
Flemings and Acuff are very different flavors of similar profile players: smaller lead guards who are most effective with the ball in their hands. Acuff has slightly better measurables at 6’2” and 185+ pounds with a 6’6.5” wingspan, compared to Flemings at 6’2.5”, 183 pounds, and a 6’3.5” wingspan. Flemings is a superior athlete, though, posting one of the highest verticals for a point guard in the draft at 40.5” (compared to a solid but not superlative 36.5” figure for Acuff), which he frequently put on display in college.
Starting on the defensive end, I think Flemings has a chance to be a high-level defender for his position. Guys who play for Houston coach Kelvin Sampson play hard defensively, and Flemings was more than willing to mix it up on that end of the floor. He posted very strong steals numbers (1.5 steals per game and a 3.0% steal rate) and a strong Defensive Box Plus/Minus of 6.0. He was also a very strong rebounder for his size at over 4.1 rebounds per game. At the same time, I think it’s fair to say that Flemings’ smaller stature (both in terms of height and weight) and his lack of length limit his defensive upside a bit. Unless he can stack on weight, he may be overpowered by bigger guards. While there aren’t a ton of them, the Luka Doncic’s, Cade Cunningham’s, and Ant Edwards’ of the world are likely going to be able to overpower Flemings, and his lack of length leaves him without a ton of options to bother that kind of player. The same concerns are also likely to limit his switchability as a defender. If Flemings can add strength and weight, he can mitigate the issue—as some players like Cason Wallace and Jrue Holiday have done in the past—but that could come at the cost of his speed.
Compared to Acuff, there’s basically no question who is the stronger defensive talent: it is Flemings by a mile. Even though Acuff is physically bigger, his defensive production was extremely low. Acuff offered little resistance as a point of attack defender, rarely turned teams over (0.8 steals per game / 1.3% steal rate), and rarely contributed meaningfully as a help defender. Acuff’s enormous role offensively may explain his defensive deficiencies in part, but he frequently showed subpar effort and attention to detail on that end of the floor. Even if Flemings cannot become a All Defense level guard, there’s basically no question in my mind he’s going to be far ahead of Acuff on that side of the ball absent a major change to Acuff’s focus.
On the offensive end, things flip.
Flemings is a good shooter (47.6% from the floor and 38.7% from three), a solid ball handler, an effective passer (5.2 assists per game, and he takes care of the ball (just 1.8 turnovers per game). He uses his impressive athleticism and quickness to threaten the paint, and defenders have to watch out for the very real possibility that he will blow past them to finish with acrobatic dunks and layups. He pairs that downhill ability with strong outside shooting and a solid turn-around midrange game, so he does not get stuck going downhill like you see with some athletic guards. But when Flemings beats his man off the bounce, he can tunnel in a bit on the rim at times, and when confronted with NBA-level paint protectors, he is too quick to rely on difficult pullup jumpers or passing out. You’d love to see him develop a floater or a way to use pace to keep defenders off balance—but those are skills that not every guard develops and usually take quite a bit of time to do so (if they do at all). And while it’s hard to attribute this entirely to Flemings, I didn’t see the level of comfort I would have liked to see from him in the pick and roll, which is a staple for late-game NBA offenses.
Acuff, on the other hand, is basically an offensive savant. He averaged 23.5 points and 6.4 assists per game, with an impressive 9.4 Offensive Box Plus/Minus (top 5 in the nation), for an Arkansas team that basically had to outscore everyone to compete. He also shot the ball incredibly effectively all season (48.4% from the field ant 44% from 3) with a very tough shot diet filled with off-the-bounce threes and contested floaters/layups. Though undersized and lacking elite athleticism, he was mo did so despite an incredibly tough shot diet. While Arkansas had a solid roster, there is little question that Acuff was the engine.
Acuff isn’t a blow-by type guard, but he was extremely effective at using ball screens to create space and get to the paint. He was consistently under control and comfortable getting to his spots as a scorer, and he is comfortable scoring in basically every way possible. When given any daylight off the screen, Acuff was comfortable going to a healthy mix of quick pull up jumpers (which he knocked down constantly), midrange jumpers, floaters, and rim attacks. I’m not sure there is a single shot that Acuff doesn’t have in his bag. Even still, he stayed under control enough to keep defenders off balance and draw a lot of fouls too, which helped him to over 6 free throw attempts per game. At the same time, he was consistently looking for teammates rolling/cutting to the basket or who stayed home in the corner—which are fantastic tools for a lead guard to have at the NBA level. I am a little worried about how often he had to jump to hit passes out of the pick and roll, but he was so adept at it that it’s hard to criticize harshly.
So how should Brooklyn decide between the two guards?
I think it’s hard—perhaps one of the hardest decisions in the draft this year. I like Flemings a bit more for Brooklyn because of his defensive competitiveness, where I think he should be able to achieve early against smaller guards and leave bigger bodies to the much more sizable Egor Demin. Flemings’ athleticism will also help him play more on the second-side from Demin when he has the ball, and Flemings’ need to develop more as a pick and roll player should be less of an issue for a Brooklyn team that is has an alternative lead ballhandler. That said, if they took Acuff here instead, it would make a lot of sense too. If Acuff’s shooting stays at its college level, he’s going to score incredibly effective at the NBA level.
#7: Sacramento Kings - Darius Acuff (Guard, Arkansas)
The Kings get to follow Brooklyn’s pick, and they should be very happy to take whichever of Acuff and Flemings falls to them. Here, Acuff lands in their lap—which certainly matches well with the extensive reporting that has connected Acuff with the Kings. Alas, I don’t get to do anything creative here!
As noted previously, Acuff has the tools to be an offensive engine for the Kings going forward. He provides lead guard skills they desperately need and plus outside shooting, which has been a serious concern. Acuff isn’t necessarily the best fit with Lavine and DeRozan, but the Kings aren’t planning around Lavine and there’s a reasonable chance that DeRozan is not on the roster to start the season. The Kings’ other guards don’t project as good enough offensively to stop them from picking the best guard available either. Moreover, if the Kings keep Sabonis (which they should for now), Acuff will be able to operate as a very effective pick and roll partner for him and Max Raynaud. And the better size of Keegan Murray, De’Andre Hunter, and Nique Cliffored should help mask some of Acuff’s defensive limitations on the perimeter—although I do not expect the Kings to be a plus defensive team any time soon.
No selection at #7 is going to fix the Kings overnight, but Acuff should put them on the right track. Flemings would bring different benefits if he falls to them instead, but they should be happy with him as an alternative as well. I would even think Mikel Brown Jr. is a defensible pick here for the Kings given his offensive projection, but for reasons I will go into next, I don’t see him as the best fit for the Kings long-term.
#8: Atlanta Hawks - Mikel Brown Jr. (Guard, Louisville)
I’m not the biggest believer in Mikel Brown Jr., but I can certainly see where the hype comes from. He’s an incredibly creative offensive player with absolutely no conscience about taking (and making) incredibly high-difficulty shots and attempting genius-level passes. Think LaMelo Ball with slightly more restraint (and I emphasize slightly). The ceiling is tremendous for Brown as a result—and if he can string everything together, there is a world in which he becomes the best guard in this draft.
My concern is really two-fold: Will he ever reign it in? And what about the back issues?
I don’t have much to say about the back issues other than to note it’s always a bit scary, so let’s focus on the “reign it in” piece.
Brown had a much more up-and-down season than the other guards in this range (Wagler, Flemings, Acuff, and Burries). He played only 21 games due to injury and his production overall was inefficient compared to the others. While Brown averaged over 18 points and 4.7 assists per game, he turned the ball over frequently at 3.1 turnovers per game and hit the lowest percentage of his shots, just 41% of his field goals and 34.4% of his threes.
Misses didn’t dissuade Brown at all, however. He stayed in attack mode on offense at basically all times, showing a willingness to use his plus athleticism to attack the paint and zero conscience about taking difficult off-the-bounce shots (including threes). Although he missed more than you’d like, this was actually encouraging in a lot of ways—Brown’s form is strong, and he is clearly a willing scorer who will not shy away from a rough shooting stretch. Of course, Brown’s difficult shot diet could also bite him, as he frequently makes things more difficult than they need to be. The same thing is true for Brown’s passing game. He is exceptionally creative as a passer who sees potential passing lanes that other players consistently pass up; he also throws the ball away at an alarming rate in pursuit of opportunities that are low percentage.
If Brown can reign in his shot selection and be just a bit more covetous of the ball, there’s real potential here. He has very good size (like Wagler) at just under 6’5” and his 39.5” vertical reflects strong athletic traits like Flemings. He has deep range from three. He is willing and able to attack the paint to stress defenses. He has good insticts and vision with the ball in his hands. And while I have a hard time seeing brown as a plus defender, like Wagler, he may be able to make up for some flaws with his size, and he’s a better athlete.
Ultimately, I think the consistency that Wagler, Flemings, and Acuff showed makes them more appealing prospects than Brown. But there’s no doubt that if Brown can pull everything together, he could surpass any one of them.
For a Hawks team that has strong perimeter defenders in Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels, I think an upside swing on Brown makes a lot of sense.
#9: Dallas Mavericks - Brayden Burries (Guard, Arizona)
Burries is the next best player available in my view, but he’s a bit older than Wagler/Flemings/Acuff/Brown and doesn’t quite provide the same on-ball juice as the those players. Still, Burries is a very effective player with few holes in his game, and he put together an incredibly efficient season for a high-quality Arizona team as a freshman. That’s nothing to sneeze at.
Buries’ offensive game does not lend itself as obviously to lead-guard duties as any of the guards above him here, and he wasn’t able to generate quite the same level of individual scoring punch, but he was a very strong offensive player in his own right. As a freshman, Burries lead Arizona at 16.1 points per game on terrific 49.1% / 39.1% / 80.5% shooting splits. He also consistently played within himself, limiting turnovers effectively and letting the team’s offense as a whole function effectively. I thought he was most effective in a 2-guard role, where his catch-and-shoot efficiency was able to shine a bit more, but he did handle some point guard responsibilities for the Wildcats and was generally capable there. He only managed 2.4 assists per game, though, and was behind all of the other preceding guards as a passer (with the possible exception of Peterson).
At the same time, Burries’ defense made him well-rounded as a two-way player comparatively. Burries is a capable perimeter defender who, at 6’4” and 215 pounds, is big and strong enough to hold up against most guards (his age may have helped in that regard). Even though Burries doesn’t project to be an elite defensive player, it is very easy to envision him guarding his position effectively and even handling switches onto bigger players.
Burries would make a really strong fit for the Mavericks, who have a lead ball handler in Kyrie Irving and a future All-Star on-ball player in Cooper Flagg. Burries doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective, and his plus shooting and solid defense will allow him to easily slot in to the Mavs’ roster.
#10: Milwaukee Bucks - Nate Ament (Forward, Tennessee)
While I’m not going all the way through the lottery, apparently Milwaukee made a big trade yesterday to send Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Miami Heat in exchange for the #13 pick, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jacquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, and Kasparas Jakucionas, a future first, two future firsts, a future first pick swap, and a future second (quite a haul, I might add!). The net effect is, I basically have to consider the new landscape pretty carefully now.
Setting aside the future pick haul, the Bucks just added the #13 pick, a great perimeter shooter with some defensive limitations in Herro, an all-around balanced, high-quality rotation wing in Jacquez, an intriguing big in Ware who has both floor-stretching and shot-blocking potential (one of the rarest prototypes in the NBA), and a potential jumbo-PG prospect in Jakucionas. So what do they need at #10, and what will still be available to them at #13?
The most unique player left in the draft is Nate Ament. He’s a big wing/PF prospect with great height (6’10”) and length (7’ wingspan) to go with solid explosion traits (37” vertical), but he’s quite thin at just 211 pounds and probably quite a ways away from contributing meaningfully to an NBA team. His production at Tennessee was decent—16.7 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, with a solid ability to get to the line at 7.1 free throw attempts per game—but his efficiency was not strong at all. He didn’t finish well at the rim and at times would get caught without a go-to plan offensively, which lead to him shooting a pedestrian 39% from the field. And he didn’t shoot it particularly well from distance either, at just 33.3% from three on almost 4 attempts per game. Karim Lopez is also an alternative here, as he shares many of the same traits as Ament.
Aday Mara (7’4” center from Michigan) is also a reasonable alternative, but I have to imagine that Milwaukee considers Kel’el Ware to be one of the primary prizes they got back from trading Giannis, and it’s not clear to me that Mara and Ware would fit well together given they both want to stay near the basket on the defensive end. While their combined height would be interesting offensively, it also seems limiting. And I suppose Myles Turner still exists on the roster.
Mara’s Michigan teammate, Morez Johnson Jr., would be an interesting pick add as well. Johnson is more of a traditional big—roughly 6’11” and 250+ pounds—but he does a lot of things well and has few obvious holes in his game. He also plays with a motor that is very hard to replicate. During Michigan’s title run, he was often the guy responsible for bringing juice to the team through strong interior play, highlight dunks, and critical blocks.
The Bucks could also consider a point guard, but the remaining options (LaBaron Philon, Christian Anderson, Ebuka Okorie, and Bennett Stirtz) probably would be overdrafted at pick #10 and likely would not fit super well next to the newly-acquired Herro due to size/defensive limitations.
If I’m the Bucks, I think I would lean Ament here. Yes, he will need time, and yes, it’s a bit of an upside play, but that makes sense given the decision the franchise made to deal Giannis yesterday. Plus, I think there’s a reasonable chance Johnson or another big (hello, Hannes Steinbach?) might be available who could fill a need next to Ware long term at pick #13 as well.
Wrap Up
That’s all I’ve got this time around. Really excited to see the draft tonight and seeing how this crop of players shakes out! It should be a great group who will be very fun to watch going forward.